Sunday, March 11, 2018

My Current Status and Race Predictions...

I'm 56 days away from the PGH Marathon and this is my current status at the "less than two months to go" mark:
⃢ I have completed 3 moderately long LRs (16 miles x 2; 15 miles x1)
⃢ I have 3 longer LRs left (18 miles x1; 20 miles x1; 22 miles x1)
⃢ I have 2 more races prior to the PGH Marathon weekend (Sunrise 1/2; Carmel Marathon relay)
⃢ I have 1 major trip that will somewhat interrupt my training cycle (FLL>>SEA>>PDX>>FLL)
⃢ I have 0 doubts in my ability to complete the PGH Marathon (based on how training has been going)
⃢ I have 1 tiny concern about getting a sub-5:30:00 finish (since I haven't been doing a lot of hill work)
⃢ I have 2 "back-up" race goals just in case (beat my Chicago marathon time; or get a sub-5:45:00 finish)
⃢ I have 3 minor things to finalize before my PGH trip (but the major stuff (flight & hotel) are taken care of)
⃢ I have 3 major work things to complete before I can start tackling those minor things

So about my race goals - I've been planning for a sub-5:30:00 finish time, which will not only be a PR for me but also a major accomplishment after the disasters of the NYC & Berlin marathons. For NY I was under-trained and for Berlin I got injured during the race. Not fun. Both those races had finish times of 6+hours and I'm not in the mood (or emotional frame of mind) to deal with that again. Not when my goal (for both) was 5:30:00 (I've been chasing that goal for a while). Anyway, choosing Pittsburgh to PR in may not have been the wisest idea (being from Florida with no hills and considering the entire second half of the race (pretty much) is nothing but hills...

I've invested a lot of time in my training plan for Pittsburgh; making edits and tweaking things as training has progressed; taking rest days when I feel myself approaching the "over training danger zone"; and adjusting for life (a lot) to accommodate competing priorities; and creating as much work:life:marathon training balance as I possibly can. So in keeping with my investment of time, and my desire to remain realistic about what my body can do, I decided to look at a couple of race predictors to see if I'm still on track for a 5:30:00 finish time.

Tool #1 from RunningAHEAD

(ok, not bad... especially since the 16 & 10 milers were my last two LRs)

Tool #2 from Chicago Endurance Sports

(so right under the goal time, but still... not bad)

Tool #3 from Runner's World
(RW asked for different info (13.1 miles & 10 miles) & had a significantly different estimation)

I'm not a big fan of the Runner's World prediction (as you can imagine) since it's worse than my time for the NY Marathon (during which I walked all the bridges... and then some) and Berlin (where I got injured at mile 21 and walked most of the remaining 5 miles). But, it also used different statistics for it's calculation so maybe, just maybe, I still have time to improve the prediction before race day. Plus, the distances and times I used for all these predictors weren't exactly race times, but rather my LR times over the past two weeks; and according to Hal's tweet...

Worst case scenario, if my Plan A, B, and C goals fall through, I will still attempt to finish under 6 hours (which will be a big improvement over both NY and Berlin).

All-in-all I refuse to let negative finish time predictions dampen my excitement about this trip (and this race). A lot of things will be different about this event, including my official blogger status...

I'm looking forward to meeting all the other amazing bloggers and organizers in person when I go, and (hopefully) getting to spend more time at the Expo fully exploring everything it has to offer (I've been rushing through every race expo so far this year). 

I also got my "I'm In!" yard sign recently so I've had that up on display...
Less than 2 months to go!!!

Have you ever used a race predictor when training for a race?

How often do you modify your training plan (during your training cycle)

Have you ever been to Pittsburgh? I need some restaurant recommendations please :)